Marketers shall ask themselves constantly what to end, what to begin and what to continue building.
When thinking about this myself, I do this by observing the internal and external factors that both seem to develop in cycles. Both are rather fluctuations than cycles…the internal movements are quite often like pulses…expressing enthusiasm, depression or stability…
The explanation of fluctuations in aggregate economic activity is one of the major concerns of macroeconomics. There are a number of heterodox economic theories of business cycles, associated with particular schools or theories…according to Real Business Cycle theory, business cycles are even real and not failure of markets…they are seen as efficient responses to exogenous changes…
Theories are passionately "discussed" and an outsider, like myself, may get the opinion the battles are influenced by ideologic positions…but heavy disagreements go beyond: pro and con equilibrium theories…neo-classical economy vs complexity economy…and who are the better economists, macro economists or the physicists?…I wrote about this in…Fit the Battle of Econo. Econo. Econo
My simple observation over many years…there are market behavior fluctuations that do not go in pairs with economic fluctuations. Especially in innovation marketing.
Periods where markets behave enthusiastic, stable or depressive may be counter intuitive to the economic development of this period.
i've no theory about this, but it reminds me on Innovation - Revolution of Heroes or Heroes of Revolution. A coincidence of talented people at a time or talented people to join a revolution...share their bets work. Yes, I believe in the latter…technology revolutions make heroes.
"Bebopers" wanted to counter the swing style with non-dancable music by fast tempo, instrumental virtuosity and improvisation…later, "Freejazzers" wanted to free music from the controlling (limiting) ideas and conventions of bebop…
Uncertainty and Optionality
It's about (erratic) depression-enthusiasm-stability fluctuations…we should understand them perfectly when deciding what to end, start and continue?
But there will be still uncertainty…if innovation marketers want to fully understand the financial consequences of the decisions…real option valuation (across scenarios) will help quantifying them and find the game-changing rules they want to set in their market segments in a certain period…
Good innovation marketers do not decide on average expectations.