Not Fooled By Randomness

Paul Wilmott, the renowned researcher, quant, quantitative finance has successfully forecast  the results of the UK General Election 2015.

I'm looking forward to read the whole paper…I'm sure it will fully explain how to overcome the traps of traditional predictive modeling…lacking the right treatment of randomness. Comparisons are made between elections and derivative valuation…about stochastic (mathematical) modeling complexity, the model calibration traps…

It's quant innovation. I'm senior member at that serves the quant finance community and I enjoyed meeting Paul in person several times. He influenced my view of quant innovation and inspired me to think beyond what it does…(we) innovators must recognize that our work has enormous effects on our life and time many of them beyond our comprehension. The world doesn't follow our equations, but our innovation can explain, inspire, forecast, control…

The successful forecast of the election results is thrilling…it disrupted beliefs, use different points of view, changes controlling ideas, methodology…validating approaches from another field.

It's about modeling under uncertainty.

Edit: the videos on Paul's talk are here