Europe's Bareness

I'm temporarily departing from my usual writing about innovation to write about something I find scaring: the response of "Europe", including my own county, to the refugee crisis.

Photos from the Macedonian border…made me asking: is this the Europe I've been learning at and working for so many years? What kind of society is it that wants to deter the poorest with teargas?

Many argue that Europe cannot afford to absorb the number of "migrants" streaming into our countries. But our countries are rich...they can always find resources for the things that are (more or  less) politically important.

Some say that the incoming "masses" will occupy their space, take their jobs and in general "threaten their way of life". But the number of migrants that have reached the EU this year is less then 0.3% of its population..1% would be 5 Million in the EU and 10 in a village of 1000 people.

Others say, they're only "welfare seekers" who come to take away the benefits we've been working so hard for. But about 65% are refugees fleeing horrible war zones…Syria, Iraq...

International rules say that refugees should apply for asylum in the first safe county they arrive, like Lebanon, Turkey, Egypt...But those countries are already bursting at the seams. Greece and Italy are suffering from concentrations at their peripheral sea regions (islands)…they all need support and a fast plan for a quick distribution, legal migration paths and a quick settlement. I'm supporting an equal distribution supported by a refunding stream from the richer to the poorer EU countries.

Some countries run a strategy of deterrence and discouragement…Is this the response of a society that calls itself enlightened, civilized…? The EU itself behaves like if refugees are someone else's problem?
But also the countries, including mine...

Let's stop this now. Implement a human-rights-based entry and migration policy…Bottom up and top down.

Treating people with humanity always pays back. And it's easy…

Picture from Sehfelder

What's At Stake?

You innovate, and at the beginning you're alone with your ideas…What will be the things that change everything? The breakthrough in what you're building, the capital you need, the promotion that creates the required awareness…?

What's at stake in the innovation? If it's not earth-shattering, shall you find another one? What's at stake for you personally? Do you feel you could skip the project…you're not sure whether you should devote months/years of your life building…? You hear your inside telling you to avoid…?

You fear using your best days to create something that you're not sure whether it works and sells is waste of time? You fear putting months/years of blood, sweat and tears and getting nothing in return?

Wait a little, things may not change over night and it may be a great strategy to focus on the steps. It's about the right scope, the right market segments, right timing and the right financing. Barriers to enter those who care have been marginalized years ago…

Innovators don't play it safe?

Do you want to sell your innovation on proposal? Would you disclose your great ideas in advance? Or just jump over the fences: do it and sell it? Be an innovator for the big returns?

Why not both?

Uncertainty and Optionality

Quantify your innovation projects under uncertainty. Real option valuation tools will help you maximizing the value of your innovation project…they help you to be practical. It's not only one catch…

Innovation Mesh Review

Oh, it was hot here over weeks now…up to 39 C. When I was in Finland I thought I'll swim a lot in its great water world. But the weather and water was quite chilly so I hiked a lot…returned, I thought I'll hike through the woods of the rolling hills north of Linz, but I swam instead…

However, among other exciting projects, I went into the lab again and reviewed The Innovation Mesh 

The Five Leaf Type Clover

What's the first thing that I do, when I asses an innovation…and what's the first thing I recommend an innovator to do? Find out what types the innovation is (is going to be). The types classify the innovation in order to manage the expectations of actors and clients. It's done for books, theaters, films, shows...many years. It's called genres and it's what marketers and promoters put at covers, trailers…

But there's more…innovation types control conventions, obligatory tasks, points of view, needs…and finally methods and technologies.

The Time Type tells you how fast the innovation works related to a real behavior and how well it is synchronized with it,

The Reality Type tells you how far the innovation disrupts our believes. Do they refer to facts, real world behavior, support the problem solving process itself, or provide insights into a virtual, speculative world?

The Style Types classifies the appeal of an innovationare they documentary, literary, graphical or even theatrical?

The Structure Type tells us how the innovation is going to change our lives…do they represent how single or multiple objects/agents flow through single or multiple processes, or do they represent interacting (intelligent) objects/agents?

The Matter Type describes the innovation energy…It's divided into Purpose Type - what is the innovation for and what are it's drivers...and Realization Type - how the innovation works and how it is built.

I've selected quantitative innovations, because they're difficult and thrilling and I know them better…I concentrate on them when going deeper;

The Macro Innovation

Having a clear understanding of the types of a quant innovation, I create what I call The Quant Innovation Mesh a one-page scheme to figure out the objectives of the innovation but much more important: how they are achieved. It represents the macro point of view.

It's my strong believe that most quant innovation need Preprocessing, Processing and Postprocessing and I try to identify the constructors, progressive problems and solutions in each of this steps.

This is my first attempt when walking through a quant innovation. They're important…from the user point of view the constructors act as a kind of a beginning hook, the management of the progressive problems, the middle build and the solutions the end payoff. The management of progressive problems is the tricky part. This is where users may get hung up.

Then I look into the Big Wants and Needs, Point of View, Obligatory Tasks…and finally Conventions and Core Technologies,

On that one-page scheme I get the entire outline of the innovation…and I recommend that innovators do it if they want to self assess their quant innovation.

The Micro Innovation

I've have got the macro view of the innovation. I understand the innovation is working in steps from the begin to the end. It's meeting conventions and obligatory tasks. Can I help to make it better…a classic of the future?

To do that I need the micro view…and the the most important tool is The Quant Innovation Spreadsheet - it goes through the tasks and its columns include Events, Changes, Points of View, Timing, Actors, Worldview and Realization. In The Quant Innovation Spreadsheet I've filled a rough scheme in for UnRisk CM for better readability…but it's usually much more comprehensive.

So why am I tracking the events, points of view, timing…from task to task? Because I want to know whether or not the innovation helps the actors to make the required changes to improve a quality, make a system more productive, flexible…or solve a problem...

Quant innovations have life cycles and come in releases…so it's an iterative work and the schemes help finding changes and even turning points required to stretch and expand market segments for the innovation.

The Big Flow

I've now the The Quant Innovation Mesh and  The Quant Innovation Spreadsheet. Sometimes it may help to put them together by creating an info-graphic. Especially when actors need to work against dangerous events, bad actions or the clock…

Then I describe the required changes (external and internal values) across a task-axis. The upper part of the graph connotes the "positive" below the "negative". The info-graphic may show fluctuations and help showing whether the flows are logically sound, the timing and synchronization points are sound…I see possible  break points that may sabotage the innovation.

Visualizing the entire quant innovation is fun…but there are other ways combining the Macro and Micro getting the Big Picture.