tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53637380832826643712024-03-13T14:45:30.835+01:00EXNER adviceAgainst The Fear Of RejectionHerbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comBlogger173125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-88543558651473730042019-06-08T14:09:00.000+02:002019-06-08T14:23:11.139+02:00FORMWELTI'm 75 and need to focus on the most exciting innovations consequently (sorry, that I haven't posted for a while)<br />
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I'm still passionate about future technologies ... particularly, those involving Computational Languages and their Knowledge Bases applied to fields where complex concepts need to be explained to non experts (an offer of <a href="https://www.unisoftwareplus.com/" target="_blank">uni software plus</a> that I founded 1990 and luckily gave 2014 into Michael Aichinger's hands)<br />
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<a href="https://formwelt.info/" target="_blank">FORMWELT</a> is a technology that offers a language to develop languages. It's an amazing new way of thinking, telling and doing. So amazing, that I want to learn much more ... It offers a broad variety of applications, but what thrills me is the possible co-evolution of human and machine intelligence that goes far beyond human-machine interaction<br />
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More about FORMWELT through the lens of an old innovation marketer to comeHerbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-19532523662233019262017-08-16T12:01:00.000+02:002017-08-16T12:01:26.910+02:00Unser Online BookIt's ready for download and it's free of charge <a href="http://unser.politik-quantitative.com/online-buch-download/" target="_blank">Unser Online Book</a>Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-8386166001152162342017-07-26T13:48:00.001+02:002017-07-26T13:48:14.819+02:00Complexity Politics - Recalibrate Models in a Loop<span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://unser.politik-quantitative.com/" target="_blank">Unser</a> surfs on the waves of complexity. However, it tries to master it by the intelligent interplay of instruments, agility and adaptivity ... And thus, cut through the waves in certain situations. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<b>The century of complexity</b><br />
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Structural changes are complicated, but system changes are complex. International relations are complicated, but global civilization is complex. In complex systems, crises are not simply cycles, but operational accidents with often catastrophic consequences.<br />
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"The 21st century, is the century of complexity", said Stephen Hawkins. In fact, the physics of geopolitics, economics, social systems ... with its striving for equilibriums is replaced by a physics of complexity. Never before did we have smart connected things and processes. Never before did we have smarter methods and tools. Never before have we lived in multipolar, multi-civilizing orders. The biggest system change: shifting state-centered orders into an arena of multiple agents.<br />
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There's one big thing that's atop the details: there's no significant payoff of any political change, without quantitative political engineering. Policymakers having lost their abilities to sustain decisions need deep understanding of positive feedback, free agent complexity, the complexity of risk, the limits of probability, the impossibility of predicting future. But the need to know, how to write future instead.<br />
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<b>Free agent complexity</b><br />
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Socio-economic systems are determined by the mutual behavior of agents. Interacting agents are producers, investors, consumers. They constantly change their strategies and actions in response to the result they produce reciprocally. A more difficult constellation is hardly conceivable.<br />
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<b>Multinational or transnational?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Multinational corporations have a fixed headquarter. But smart affiliates think transnationally in a network of market participants, partners and company networks. They see the world through the lens of supply and demand, without nations. This is close to the concept of fluid dynamics in physics: flow and friction of solids, liquids, and gases. Flow and friction determine the ability of the offers to meet the demand. Resources, goods, capital, technology, work, data, ideas ... flow, constrained by borders, conflicts, sanctions, rules, protective rights ...<br />
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<b></b><br />
In this complexity, markets are no longer places, but the exchange itself.<br />
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<b>Writing future</b><br />
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Complexity politics need to thinks less in concrete goals and structural principles, but in their patterns. The usual forms of political expression (geopolitics, social, economics ...) are to be replaced by making, reacting, and renewing. Write, not predict future. On the basis of models, simulation, adaptation ...<br />
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The way to do it will be the orthogonal organization of instruments, models and methods and calibrating the driving parameters in the loop. Frequent recalibration. Remember, surfing on the waves of complexity and cutting through them model-driven.<br />
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Not an easy task .. but indispensable. Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-16836171744308021222017-04-12T10:58:00.003+02:002017-04-12T10:59:35.354+02:00Product Risk Qualification<span style="font-family: inherit;">The <a href="https://www.unriskomega.com/" target="_blank">UnRisk Omega</a> cooperation is working so amazingly well. Remember, what we had in mind, when <a href="http://www.exnergmbh.com/2015/10/storydoing-at-unrisk.html" target="_blank">launching UnRisk</a>. UnRisk Omega<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"> is the co-creation of multilateral and UnRisk. It's all about risk-informed investment management. And it sets the pace by combining the latest theories with practical requirements:</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;">Read about their </span><span style="line-height: 21px;">latest</span><span style="line-height: 21px;"> achievement <a href="https://www.wilmott.com/product-risk-classification/" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"><br /></span></span></span>
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<strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">What is the PRC?</span></strong></h3>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The product risk classification (PRC) is a risk indicator that is based on quantitative models. It allows us to compare the financial risk of investment products of different kinds and asset classes. The PRC is a risk measure for single instruments, which does not consider portfolio aspects. It can be based on historical data and thus can vary during the lifetime of a product.</span></div>
<h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Fulfill</b><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> regulatory requirements </strong></span></h3>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The product risk classification is another building block for fulfilling requirements such as FIDLEG or MiFID II, which require checking the suitability and appropriateness of proposed investments as well as providing the customer with transparent and comprehensible information on all risks connected with the proposed investment. From a regulatory point of view, the PRC becomes important as soon as an advisor needs to assess whether a client is able to bear the financial risk of a specific investment produ</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px;">ct.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Do things from complex to pragmatic. One could also call this: Reverse Innovation.</span></div>
Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-9262286949834908382017-03-27T09:52:00.001+02:002017-03-28T10:06:39.695+02:00PayoffI've just read <a href="http://danariely.com/books/payoff/" target="_blank">this book</a> in one sitting. It's about the hidden logic and the bigger picture of motivation. it's using stuff that has been presented in Dan Ariely's other great books. But it ties them so intelligently together, that I recommend to read it even if you have experienced the other books.<br />
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After I've dived deeper into politics, especially into the co-evolution of economy and labor (in its full complexity) it became more clear, how easy it is to destroy motivation and how difficult is to build. The subject is far more complex than we ever imagined.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
It's worth investigating the nature of motivation, <span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 22.4px;">our partial blindness to the way it works, and how we can bridge this gap.</span></span></blockquote>
Oh, yes.Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-61260851629754241992017-03-09T17:20:00.002+01:002017-04-04T12:30:43.895+02:00The Workflow Of The Book<span style="font-family: inherit;">T<span style="font-family: inherit;">he workflow of the book in a nutshell. Incidents - Progressive Problems - Resolution in telegram style. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
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<h2>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">A politics that fixes what it eventually broke</span></b></h2>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-O7xZq_DqPYQ/WMGB-XW6_cI/AAAAAAAABYc/033AE5sgS_orHPQoJVRCbOYtziLFjoiuACLcB/s1600/Funktionale%2BPolitik.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" height="318" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-O7xZq_DqPYQ/WMGB-XW6_cI/AAAAAAAABYc/033AE5sgS_orHPQoJVRCbOYtziLFjoiuACLcB/s320/Funktionale%2BPolitik.jpg" width="320" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Politics must be agile and adaptive. It must be developed evolutionarily. In a balance of structural and behavioral change. As a system that becomes stronger under stress.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Political Engineering</span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b>
P<span style="font-family: inherit;">olitical engineering by means of paper decay can not depict the complexity. It requires new interaction patterns and technology support.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Quant Politics</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Provided the complex state wants to reach its national targets, it must quantify. Supported by methods of econometrics, engineering, physics, mathematics and programming.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
</span><br />
<h2>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
Once there was a fisher and a farmer</span></h2>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b>
<b>First was the exchange</b></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">A fisher and a farmer exchanged a trout for carrots. Asynchronous deliveries forced a contract between a creditor (the fisher delivered in autumn) and a debtor (the farmer delivered next spring).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Banks were established</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Because there were many networked exchange contracts of that type, it was obvious to transfer the central creation, storage and settlement to clearing houses. Banks.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Money was created</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Money was created by standardization of these contracts. Banks record all transactions and multilateral relationships between creditors and debtors applying double-entry bookkeeping.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Money out of nothing</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">A bank lending money, draws it out of nothing. This money can be put into an economical circulation. If the great-granddaughter of the fisher, a salmon breeder, buys a yellow convertible for 50,000, she creates branched income.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Central banks were established </span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Provided the bank of the salmon breeder resides in Vienna and that of the car dealer in Milan this leads to a quadrangular relationship of reciprocal claims and obligations. Interwoven money transactions between and with banks are supported by a clearing house. A central bank.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>The money system is programmable</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Money is solid as a storage for values and liquid as a medium for economical transactions. Consequently, it's programmable.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">The money goes to?</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Real investment:</b> provided the great-grandson of the farmer borrows 200,000 to create a chili-production, he immediately generates income in a certain economy. Future income can serve the debt and interest. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">S<b>peculative investment:</b> provided the salmon breeder lends 200,000 and buys a house to resell it later more expensive it only generates wealth. If the house price falls, she can only pay part of the debt and interest.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Real investment hardly leads to debt crises. Speculative investment can lead to bursting bubbles. </span><br />
<b style="color: #272727; font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: -0.56px; line-height: 22.4px;"><br /></b>
<b style="color: #272727; letter-spacing: -0.56px; line-height: 22.4px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Main Street and Wall Street</span></b></div>
</div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #272727; font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: -0.56px; line-height: 22.4px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #272727; letter-spacing: -0.56px; line-height: 22.4px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Real futures and real options could maximize the value of the investment project of the chili producer. The models come from Wall Street.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white; letter-spacing: -0.56px; line-height: 22.4px;"><span style="color: #272727; font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<h2>
<span style="background-color: white; letter-spacing: -0.56px; line-height: 22.4px;"><span style="color: #272727; font-family: inherit;">Once there was a profession and a job - lifelong</span></span></h2>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b>
<b>Complexity economy</b></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">If markets are saturated by chocolate, people buy nuts. Chocolate does not yield any more. If a coveted luxury chocolate appears on the market, this can create a new boom for the mass chocolate. This positive feedback describes the complexity economy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>The future of work</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">If education can't win the race with technology, human labor becomes less and polarized (super-brain or muscles?).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>The big picture of work</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Work satisfaction is determined by income and fulfillment. Two-dimensional working types: SLAVRY/ HOBBY / FACTORY / LAB. The type lab offers the highest income and with the greatest possible fulfillment.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Income or wealth?</span></b></div>
<div>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Income determines the coevolution of labor and economy. Many improve their income situation by pooling, sharing and distributing income. This is regulated by law total economies.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<h2>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Three rights can make a wrong</span></h2>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>The change curve</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The salmon breeder wants to reorganize her company from functional to divisional (markets-centered). The project is well prepared, the teams are trained. Nevertheless, many behave as before. Uncertain future inhibits them all.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Innovation risk</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Complicated models describe a real behavior better. But they bear a higher risk of usage. The key to accepting an innovation is to optimize its risk.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Work more with artists</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Artists deal with risk, insecurity, imperfection and criticism better.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<h2>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Capitalism or free market?</span></h2>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The market is the exchange itself. It is innocent - but rarely free. In order to accumulate capital, dominant market players exclude market mechanisms by means of a planned economy. Isn't this paradox?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<h2>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Management of the wealth pool</span></h2>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">In the complex interplay of individual and total interests, the state must manage a positive development. This needs quantification.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<h2>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">It's our turn</span></h2>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Stop indirection</b></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Indirect (representative) democracy is a detour. It leads to alienation of the political cadres from the people. We have to co-determine. We do not have the detailed knowledge?</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Explorative learning</b></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">But we can learn from turbulences. Every form of school must empower learners to explore thought principles, insights, and skills enabling them to live freely in an open-minded society... able to innovate...</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Technology</span></b></div>
<div>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Better decision-support systems by technology guarantees an effective direct democracy.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Unconditional basic income</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">We all have values. A useful basic income serves as a social net and economical trampoline in one.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<h2>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The no-problem problem</span></h2>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The continuous looking after dangers does not allow any no-problem phases and the soporific we-are-great often leads directly into a crisis.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<h2>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;">The Payoff</span></h2>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-W0m0ewkvsxQ/WMGC4m1S_HI/AAAAAAAABYk/VpIHmYX78KAv0fF3sFx5NKvD6U8n4yYzACLcB/s1600/Unser-by-Karl-Artmann-2012-175318-300x300.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-W0m0ewkvsxQ/WMGC4m1S_HI/AAAAAAAABYk/VpIHmYX78KAv0fF3sFx5NKvD6U8n4yYzACLcB/s1600/Unser-by-Karl-Artmann-2012-175318-300x300.jpg" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">What's the controlling idea of a new political engineering, based on quantitative politics?</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Politics of sharing</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">A quantitative politics that strives for human emancipation. It's goal should be freedom - not equality. Its basis: to write new contexts into the socioeconomic systems. It requires adaptive models.</span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Quant politics surfs on the waves of reality and changes them with their navigation</span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">A new evolutionary, left-oriented, quant politics thinks internationally, develops bottom up and promotes decentralized decision-making structures. It's not fighting free markets but capitalism-without-adjectives. it's not protectionist. It merges, shares and distributes.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">I've a dream</span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">I don't understand left-oriented politics as a moral principle, but as a calculus of intelligent selfishness. It means putting action into a higher context. Not an anti-business movement, but a free-markets movement. A movement of open innovation and sharing.</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">It's our world, our coexistence, our control, our responsibility, our learning, our development, it's our methods, our tools - it's our evolution</span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">It's possible with existing instruments by just adapting and codevelop them with quantitative systems.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">I've worked hard for over a year, explained complicated things, went into details, introduced examples and little stories and worked out project ideas for immediate realization.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">This is a compilation. But I'm offering presentations an workouts providing full explanations... for free (if time allows for... ).</span>Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-35698373868930812017-03-08T16:53:00.002+01:002017-03-08T17:09:11.728+01:00A New Physics of Politics<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8SZzOMsC48Q/WMAsXr6UHuI/AAAAAAAABYM/yBANt-npR_AEaFocDl0efbMhMPaegc7HgCLcB/s1600/Radikale%2BInnovation.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8SZzOMsC48Q/WMAsXr6UHuI/AAAAAAAABYM/yBANt-npR_AEaFocDl0efbMhMPaegc7HgCLcB/s320/Radikale%2BInnovation.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
I've continued working on the Unser platform. I added <a href="http://unser.politik-quantitative.com/unser-quantitative-politik-hintergrund/" target="_blank">Background information</a> and a <a href="http://unser.politik-quantitative.com/unser-zusammengefasst/" target="_blank">Summary</a>.<br />
<br />
<b>A New Political Engineering</b><br />
<br />
I got freed back from readers and focus groups and not so surprisingly it turns out that business people are interested. Probably more than politicians? Because it touches a new <a href="http://unser.politik-quantitative.com/physik-der-politik/" target="_blank">Physics of Politics</a> … in the century of complexity. A new politics that enables a new political engineering based on more quantification.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Will the last decade be remembered as the time of the revolt of the underclass? With a strong political bite? Fed by deep insecurity? With a cry for change? But which one? Do we have any answers? Can we explain the geopolitical, socio-economic system without understanding the underlying new "physics"? The physics of complexity?</blockquote>
Indeed, the physics of geopolitics, economics, social systems ... striving for equilibriums is superseded by the physics of complexity. Never before did we have smart connected things and processes. Never before did we have smarter methods and tools. Never before have we lived in multipolar, multi-civilizational orders. Never before has so much of what is "us" been made of "them" and vice versa. And all this without a regime. The biggest system change is shifting state-centered orders into an arena of multiagents. To understand this, we need to understand evolution, coevolution, positive feedback, also called "butterfly effect".<br />
<br />
<b>Don't predict future - write it</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Politicians, economists, and sociologists feel less comfortable with the notion of complexity, such as physicists, biologists, computer scientists, or mathematicians, who are more likely to tolerate all forms of life only at the narrow phase boundary of chaos and order. Without stable equilibriums.<br />
<br />
Complexity politics requires a different way of thinking about politics itself. As a politics that is constantly being redesigned and adapted. A politics that is less thinking in concrete goals and structural principles, but in their patterns. The usual forms of political expressions are to be replaces by making and renewing. Don't predict future, but write it. Empowered by models, simulation, adaptation …<br />
<br />
A Herculean task. The book provides insights, ideas, and political directions ... but I hope it will be much more: a living platform ... serving a Quantitative Politics community.<br />
<br />
To get it running, I offer <b>free individual presentations and workouts</b>. For <b>business people</b>, who will be touched by the changes and better influence them rather than react.Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-13992934932435477482017-01-26T16:18:00.001+01:002017-01-26T16:18:38.732+01:00Always CooperateIf I've to describe all my experiences in a single controlling idea ... make a recommendation for innovators in a few words: Don't do it alone. Innovators want to make systems that matter for those who care. This isn't different in politics. It requires clever Focus-Stretch-Expand strategies. Therefore: always cooperate!<br />
<br />
<b>Don't develop alone</b><br />
<br />
Only an agile development cycle driven by partners can master the complexity of a quantitative politics, applying multis-trategy, multi-model and multi-method systems. We never had better environments, platforms, and tools for development. But never before had international relations been so complicated and global civilization so complex. Never before have we had smart, connected things and processes. The complexity, however, consists not only in the large, but also in the small by free agents.<br />
<br />
Complexity-politics requires a different way of thinking about politics itself. As a politics that constantly reengineers and recomputes itself.<br />
<br />
<b>Don't promote alone</b><br />
<br />
Innovations must organize a change. Maybe systems need to fix, what they eventually broke. To promote a change requires early connections and alliances, going far beyond the cooperation in agile development cycles. It needs the support of recognized voices from politics, social affairs, economy, business administration, culture, education, science, media ... best integrators who can speak for the project in the early stages.<br />
<br />
An innovation chooses itself. But it will be only adopted when it becomes connected and integrated.<br />
<br />
<b>My offer</b><br />
<br />
I want to offer an open platform serving a quantitative politics community. Inviting members to think ideas further, transforming them into projects, discuss related topics… <a href="http://unser.politik-quantitative.com/" target="_blank">Unser</a>. It starts in German, but I hope to make it international.<br />
<br />
What it is all about: build a politics that works. Make parts of it computational, develop a political discourse language that can be implemented… Think of political engineering as the design of institutions that represent programmable rules. This will represent the new physics of geopolitics and global economics better.<br />
<br />
My <a href="http://unser.politik-quantitative.com/offer/" target="_blank">Offer</a> - I've worked hard to explain complicated things, worked out the required details and included some project ideas… My offer is a platform with book.Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-6312788735014629172016-11-30T15:39:00.001+01:002016-11-30T15:39:38.126+01:00It's Quantification AgainHow could Donald Trump win with the support of "blue collar workers"? Or will the past decade be remembered as the period when the underclass revolt grew into a movement with political bite? With a cry for change? But which one?<br />
<br />
Do we have answers? Can we explain the geopolitical, socioeconomic system without understanding the underlying "physics"?<br />
<br />
An attempt at an answer:<br />
<br />
<b>A policy that fixes what it eventually</b><b> broke?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
We strive for equilibriums, although we have long since dawned that life, in all possible forms, only happens at the border between chaos and order. Political life above all. Politics benefited from the participation of the people. For this, however, more is needed than direct democracy. Complex concepts must be explained in such a way that they can be understood, comprehended and managed by non-experts. Fueled by explorative learning of people and developed according to the principles of evolution.<br />
<br />
To implement such a politics is equivalent to implement a radical innovation. It can't implement a structural and behavioral change simultaneously. It must therefore use existing instruments. The aim is a system that overcomes its fragility and becomes stronger when stressed - by diversification, flexibility and optionality. This is impossible without quantification.<br />
<br />
<b>Political engineering</b><br />
<br />
Political engineering, deals with the design of institutions. Institutions are understood as the rules that empower a society to govern itself. It often involves the use of paper decrees, in the form of laws, referenda, ordinances, or otherwise. But those instruments can never replicate the system complexity.<br />
<br />
<b>Quantitative policy</b><br />
<br />
If the state, in view of systems of growing complexity, wants to reach its targets, it must quantify. An example of this is provided by Financial Engineering on the basis of Quantitative Finance. Methods of econometrics, finance theory, engineering, physics, mathematics and programming are intelligently combined to design primary financial instrument and their derivatives (secondary financial instruments) to asses their return and risk profiles.<br />
<br />
Since politics also supports its primary tasks with secondary instruments, it is far more quantifiable than widely accepted.<br />
<br />
Structural changes are complicated, but system changes are complex. International exchange is complicated, but global civilization is complex.<br />
<br />
In complex systems, crises are not unavoidable cycles, but operational accidents.<br />
<br />
<b>The Agenda of <i>Unser</i>, the book</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>A river flows from the Industrial Revolution</b> - see <a href="http://www.exnergmbh.com/2015/12/a-river-flows-from-industrial-revolution.html" target="_blank">here</a><br />
<b>The complexity of labor and economy</b> - see <a href="http://www.exnergmbh.com/2015/12/fire-wheel-double-entry-bookkeeping.html" target="_blank">here</a>, <a href="http://www.exnergmbh.com/2015/12/complexity-economics.html" target="_blank">here</a>, <a href="http://www.exnergmbh.com/2016/01/the-future-of-work.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.exnergmbh.com/2016/01/types-of-work.html" target="_blank">here</a><br />
<b>Income or wealth</b> - explaining the essence of the money system, it emphasizes the different effects of income producing investments and speculative investments in existing wealth<br />
<b>The programmability of money</b> - it's a liquid media for economic transformations and a store for value, thus programmable, but then money system lacks an operating system.<br />
<b>A change that works </b>- how to avoid the extremes of the change curve<br />
<b>Free market or capitalism? </b>- explaining, why free markets and capitalism without adjectives cannot co-exits.<br />
<b>Management of a wealthpool</b> - how to deal with the conflicts of individual and collective interests has responsibilities.<br />
<b>It's our turn</b> - why direct democracy helps fixing politics<br />
<b>Centralize or decentralize?</b> - why Marxism 2.0 would't work and why a politics with a left orientation must decentralize.<br />
<b>Income from micro to macro</b> - about the different income types of individuals, enterprises and total economies. Why it's important to understand, where it comes from, where it goes to and how it's used<br />
<b>Control with tax </b>- to manage the tax principles, equality-cetrtainty-convinience.economy, cannot be achieved without quantitative modeling and adaptation.<br />
<b>Universal basic income</b> - why it makes sense, but also why it's required to control is by models<br />
<b>The no-problem problem</b> - about systemic risk management<br />
<br />
<b>Unser </b>- in this chapter, I give an answers and a resolution to the questions and progressive problems, I've asked and described in the previous chapters. How to use existing instruments, how to write mid term future and how to change foundations.<br />
<br />
<b>The century of complexity</b><br />
<br />
But there's one big thing thats atop the details: there's no significant pay off of any political change, without quantifying - empowering political engineering. Because the required physics of policy is the physics of complexity. It's why policymakers have lost their abilities to sustain decisions. Because it's impossible, without understanding positive feedback, free agent complexity, the complexity of risk, the limits of probability, the impossibility of predicting future, but the possibility to write it (after having understood patterns)…<br />
<br />
Without experience in quantitative fields, risk management, the theory of complex systems and innovation principles, I couldn't have written this book. But the other way around, writing it I've looked into topics that has provided new insights in core business: innovation advisory, focusing on quant innovation. In the century of complexity.Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-52976506338477167532016-10-10T19:30:00.001+02:002017-03-08T15:47:33.292+01:00Unser - A Quantitative Politics Book and Blog I've written the book and decided to share it's ideas and recommendations in a new blog (it's in German):<br />
<br />
<a href="http://unser.politik-quantitative.com/" target="_blank">Unser</a><br />
<br />
<b>My Motivation</b><br />
<br />
We strive for equilibriums, although we've long since dawned that life, in all possible forms, oscillates between chaos and order. Political life above all.<br />
<br />
Policy benefits from the participation of the population. But this is more necessary than direct democracy: complex concepts must be explained in such a way that they're understood by non-experts.<br />
<br />
I therefore designed an adaptive policy that works because it is understandable, comprehensible and manageable. Fanned by the discovery of the populations and developed according to the principles of evolution.<br />
<br />
Methodologically, I am guided by the experience that a change, a radical innovation, can not at the same time cope with a radical structural and behavioral change. My concept of an evolutionary left therefore takes bonds in innovation.<br />
<br />
The innovation itself is changing, but it uses existing familiar familiar instruments. Propagation of the new policy proceeds concentrically, according to the principle of: (the interchange between the core groups) - convection (the flow over the surfaces of political segments) - diffusion (concentric distribution in all areas)<br />
<br />
<a href="http://unser.politik-quantitative.com/kauf/" target="_blank">Order here</a>…Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-62715792042085975962016-09-28T16:43:00.000+02:002016-09-28T16:44:10.931+02:00A Book The Magazine Style<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-s6i5Je-5C14/V-vRtVqFYuI/AAAAAAAABWU/7eBacR_5SMQjMP_AcxtVeDL7bUjW3IYcACLcB/s1600/Herbert_Exner-Unser-Mockup.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="425" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-s6i5Je-5C14/V-vRtVqFYuI/AAAAAAAABWU/7eBacR_5SMQjMP_AcxtVeDL7bUjW3IYcACLcB/s640/Herbert_Exner-Unser-Mockup.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">It's in German and I think it's worth having it. It's a political book written through the lens of an </span>innovator. It's compiling insight that I gained my whole business life having put innovations always in a higher context.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
To write it, I've<br />
been working hard for over a year<br />
explained complex concepts as simple as possible<br />
without omitting important details<br />
incorporated recipes that turn ideas into projects<br />
took care of the beauty </blockquote>
It will be shipping in November, 2016.<br />
<br />
<b>I'll announce a pre-order possibility soon. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Any question? Email to <a href="mailto:herbert.exner@exnergmbh.com" target="_blank">Herbert</a>Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-31928552050443204992016-09-01T12:53:00.001+02:002016-09-01T12:53:46.337+02:00Software Makers Should Learn More About Machine LearningWe're thinking of software that develops software. Is machine learning of help?<br />
<br />
Remember, machine learning aims on decision making support. Like any learning it is about understanding things better. In a machine learning project, we extract models from data and we hope that those models are understandable and computational.<br />
<br />
But the purpose varies from analytics, over predictive modeling to control. And there's no one method that fits all. See <a href="http://www.exnergmbh.com/2016/03/a-master-machine-learning-algorithm.html" target="_blank">A Master Machine Learning Algorithm?</a><br />
<br />
<b>What is the difference between doing a machine learning project and a development project?</b><br />
<br />
In both, you usually deal with<b> </b>data. And data analysis as an exploratory approach should be the begin of anything. But machine learning experts have a different view on code than developers: developers derive programming paradigms from the problem decomposition. Machine learning experts do not think much about data-, function- or object-orieted decompositions - they're in the extracted models...<br />
<br />
But monstrous amounts of data are produced by machines and the best way to deal with all that information is by machines.<br />
<br />
So, people who do large scale machine learning think like software engineers of large scale, complex systems.<br />
<br />
<b>What about software analytics? </b><br />
<b><br /></b>Modern analytic and model-based approaches in software engineering aim on the automatic generation of software from domain models... For this task program code is data. That suggests that machine learning is applicable.<br />
<br />
We made some experiments with defect prediction in large industrial software systems (static core analysis) and found out that fuzzy decision tree methods fit well to this purpose.<br />
<br />
Software developers may enrich their development methodology with machine learning and apply machine learning in the software quality assurance process - creating a two-sided positive effect.Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-62506099580953096172016-08-17T13:21:00.000+02:002016-08-17T13:21:08.693+02:00What Kind Of Innovator Are You?The first thing I do walking an innovation through <i>The Innovation Mesh: </i>find out<i> </i>about the types. The types classify the innovation in order to manage the expectations of actors and clients.<br />
<br />
The <b>Time Type </b>tells you how fast the innovation works related to a real behavior and how well it is synchronized with it<br />
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The <b>Reality Type</b><i> </i>tells you<i> </i>how far the innovation disrupts our believes<br />
<br />
The <b>Style Types</b><i> </i>classifies the appeal of an innovation<br />
<i><br /></i>The <b>Structure Type</b><i> </i>tells us how the innovation is going to change our lives<br />
<br />
The <b>Matter Type</b><i> </i>describes the innovation energy…It's divided into <i>Purpose Type</i> and <i>Realization Type</i><br />
<br />
But there's more…innovation types control conventions, obligatory tasks, points of view, needs…and finally methods and technologies.<br />
<br />
But working in concrete with innovators I'm also interested in what innovators prefer and what characterizes their work best.<br />
<br />
<b>Quant Innovator's Orientation</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Watching innovators over years I categorize them in the following way:<br />
<br />
<b>The Theorist </b>wants to make groundbreaking inventions and build the constructors proving that the underlying theory is possible<br />
<br />
In contrast <b>The Crusader </b>wants to radically change a behavior - she's for an innovation with a conscience<br />
<br />
<b>The Modernist </b>wants to modernize the way an innovation is built - this includes system designs, architectures, methods and tools<br />
<br />
<b>The Rebel </b>wants to show that the impossible is possible - she solves the most complex problems, applies complicated models and show that this is possible with limited resources<br />
<br />
<b>The Naturalist </b>is particularly influenced by natural systems and how humans interact with them - they think in small structures of smart and connected things<br />
<br />
In contrast <b>The Worker</b> takes her inspiration from more or less systematized ways of working - thinking in workflows, transformations…<br />
<br />
For radical innovations, shaping a new world, it's vital to build innovation teams that are able to co-create by integrating such orientations.Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-71131774559801350712016-07-27T15:44:00.002+02:002017-11-24T13:13:44.078+01:00AntidisciplinaryThinking a little deeper about quantifying the combination with behavioral technologies came to my mind… more general: antidisciplinary...<br />
<br />
The Antifragile becomes stronger with added stress. The word defies easy definition and I think NN Taleb introduced it, because the non-fragility is not equal to resilience or robustness.<br />
<br />
<b>Antidisciplinary is all about non-elephant animals </b><br />
<br />
The MIT Media Lab uses "antidisciplinary" as position for doing research and learning. I enjoyed reading about it in Joi Ito's Blog: <a href="http://joi.ito.com/weblog/2014/10/02/antidisciplinar.html">Antidisciplinary</a>. It is another word that defies easy definition. It is not the same as interdisciplinary. It is a specialization on the non-specialization. Joi Ito says: "it is all about non-elephant animals".<br />
<br />
It's against fragmentation of disciplines in thinking, speaking, doing…Thinking mathematically without restricting to special functions, operators…? In combination with computer science it is maybe about knowledge based languages to program everything? Make "everything" computational.<br />
<br />
<b>Behavioral theories of finance or quant finance?</b><br />
<br />
Behavior theories of economics haven been accepted in financial circles. But more than as the feedback of psychoanalysts...at financial markets cocktail parties? Quants may think they are all treated in features, like mean reverting…and behavioral economists may not think about turning them into something quantifiable?<br />
<br />
<b>Modeling Volatility and Valuing Derivatives under Anchoring</b><br />
<br />
About 2 years ago, Wilmott, Lewis and Duffy published a rare connection between anchoring - a big idea in behavioral theories - and practical quant finance. They introduced a complete-markets model with volatility smiles, tractability, and intuitive appeal as an anchoring or habit-formation model. A derivatives valuation model that has a memory.<br />
<br />
Joi Ito may say: instead of impressing a small number of experts, taking the high risk of an unconventional approach.<br />
<br />
<b>Does antidisciplinary need disciplines?</b><br />
<br />
Paul Wilmott's approach requires different thinking but also heavy algorithmic mathematics.<br />
<br />
The antidisciplinary space needs disciplines and a rich technology stack, but also openness to ideas between disciplines.Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-80889087287226340982016-07-26T20:07:00.000+02:002017-05-16T12:50:02.558+02:00Me Talking To Myself In The Future<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: white;">This piece of the Canadian performance artist </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marie_Brassard" target="_blank">Marie Brassard</a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: white;"> inspired me to look playfully at the past from a future perspective.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">What have I </span>become<span style="font-family: inherit;"> and what will I become? I change, and </span>inevitably<span style="font-family: inherit;"> I move to the person I'll end up. But not only me</span>…<span style="font-family: inherit;">my brand, my company, my community...</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I'll check in the future whether I became more willing to explore, </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">more generous, more confident, a better market risk optimizer? When I'd arrive by time machine, what would I show myself? It's speculative…but worth trying...</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It's about my transformation from an innovator and innovation marketer to an innovation marketer and innovation marketing advisor…</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>What I may have done right technically</b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Predict the fast move to more <b>quantifying</b>. Quant innovations supports systematic investigations of observable phenomena via computational techniques in fields where this was not so common - social sciences, journalism and even law and politics. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Defend the <b>multi-model and multi-method strategies</b> against the one-size-fits-all hype of master machine learning and AI algorithms, Big Data…It was my strong belief that connectionists, evolutionaries, Bayesians, symbolists and analogizes must cooperate with modelers and numerical analysts…</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Recommend developing <b>technologies products and solutions orthogonally</b>. D</span></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;">evelop a technology stack first…technology that isn't devoted to a context at first place. Develop you </span></span><span style="line-height: 21px;">products</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"> transformative and make your solutions by tying things together. It's the </span></span><span style="line-height: 21px;">only</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"> way to make smart connected things</span></span><span style="line-height: 21px;">…</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 21px;">The contextual technologies help recommending develop front-ends that explain complex concepts to non-experts…by contextual technologies and media. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"><b>How my brand promise changed accordingly</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;">My brand promise was helping innovators leverage their businesses by assessing their innovations and help them to connect purpose, position, team and client experience. To deliver <b>a brand that is the meaning that clients attach to their innovations</b>.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;">As I increasingly convinced innovators to provide not only innovation-use-training, but give full explanation on the methods behind and finally unleash the programming power behind their innovation (to make their innovations a solution and development environment in one)…I've decided to do the same by sharing my methodologies for the assessment of innovations…</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"><b>What I'm proud of</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;">My diagnosis tool <i>The Innovation Mesh </i>and a paradigm to understand how to optimize market risk of innovations…how to deal with the known and uncertainty, how to find the barrier between them and how to optimize…and how to apply Real Options as one tool to maximize the value of an investment project.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;">This is what I'd show myself when I'd arrive by time machine…</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"><b>But there's one more thing</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;">Putting my work into a higher context (like politics), and inspired by a high level process technique…</span></span></span>I've introduced the <b>reaction-convection-diffusion metaphor to marketing.</b> It helps to optimize the market risk qualitatively…put (the story of) an innovation into the pot (market)…it will<br />
<ul>
<li><b>react</b> with worldview, states, solutions…in market segments related to its change potential and requirements</li>
<li><b>circulate</b> by convection at borders of segments with gradients in expectations, knowledge, persuasion</li>
<li><b>diffuse</b> through the market promoted by multiplying actors</li>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 21px;">Marketers can observe the "heat and speed" and control the process by adjusting access, information, education…avoid that the "pot" freezes the story or boils over with negative reactions.</span><br />
<b style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit; line-height: 21px;"><br /></b>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;">It works even </span></span><span style="line-height: 21px;">better</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"> as quantifying emerged and conquered new </span></span><span style="line-height: 21px;">fields,</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"> sectors and segments</span></span><span style="line-height: 21px;">…</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;">When a quant innovations work, the reaction-convection-diffusion </span></span><span style="line-height: 21px;">metaphor</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 21px;"> in marketing will help optimizing market risk even in new markets. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Contextual technologies build the perfect platforms…if they're understood.</span></span>Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-85428583255491514842016-07-12T15:30:00.000+02:002017-07-17T16:28:22.306+02:00Development Principles Revisit <div>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">The contextual age and technologies, the emergence of smart connected things and processes, the need to quantify more...force innovators finding new abstractions, automation and better user-system interplay…</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">This is what you should think of:</span></div>
<br />
<b>Develop evolutionary</b> - Evolutionary development cycles will motivate developers and empower constant feedback<br />
<div>
<br />
<b>Let technology revolutionize workflows</b> - Integrated model and demonstration building will help explaining complex concepts to non experts</div>
<div>
<br />
<b>Establish a bank of innovation</b> - A lab to design, analyze and fund innovations will boost dynamism for transformative development</div>
<div>
<br />
<b>Build a technology stack and get the tools required</b> - Enhance your platform and workbench to build a variety of products and solutions atop</div>
<div>
<b><br /></b>
<b>Organize a fast path from lab to market</b> - Remove deployment obstacles and close the client feed back loop</div>
<div>
<b><br /></b>
<b>Support rule breakers</b> - New approaches, methodologies and technologies will help to solve progressive problems<br />
<br />
<b>Think in development cities</b> - Establish teams who do everything from development, deployment to services. Let developers communicate with clients and actors via the underlying theories, models, methods and technologies</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This development principles will help you building big things with a comparatively small outfit.</div>
Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-55855943007950208422016-07-06T15:45:00.003+02:002016-07-07T10:34:45.535+02:00It's Now Two Years...that I've given my uni software plus into <a href="http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-1119971918.html" target="_blank">Michael Aichinger</a>'s hands - and launched my new business.<br />
<br />
What's essential:<br />
<b><br /></b><b>Exploit the wu-wei paradox</b><br />
<br />
The <a href="http://unriskinsight.blogspot.co.at/2014/05/doing-by-not-doing-wu-wei-principle.html">wu-wei principle</a> helps by letting the complex stream work for me. It was never so easy to share ideas, concepts and methodologies…understand and influence trends without reacting jittery to short-lived modes.<br />
<br />
The continued work with my features partners made it easier to do things that matter for those who care….and having saved some time I could even develop new tools…<br />
<br />
<b>Develop technology and products orthogonally</b><br />
<br />
It's becoming increasingly important to develop technologies without context first and develop contextual products atop them - transformative and adaptive. The intelligent combination of modeling with data driven methods (machine learning) is still the key.<br />
<br />
Technology stacks may include domain specific languages, engines that implement them, data and communication services…all with hybrid programming features, being platform agnostic and inherently parallel.<br />
<br />
You can inherit a lot from <a href="http://www.wolfram.com/?source=nav" target="_blank">Wolfram Technologies</a> - the internal value of building technology stacks easily…and the external value of its declarative nature that let you build functions, tasks and workflows like <i>stories</i>.<br />
<br />
<b>Avoid the fear of regret - but be aware of the <i>eager seller - stony buyer</i> principle</b><br />
<br />
To remove this kind of fear is one of the big challenges in innovation marketing. As innovator you know that at first you make things for somebody, not everybody. You need to understand from the first prototype whether your innovation will work and sell. To understand this better, I've developed and shared <i>The Innovation Mesh</i>. It adds some emotional criteria to the assessment of your innovation.<br />
<br />
Because, loss aversion of buyers can make sales figures disappointing, <i>The Innovation Mesh</i> also helps to get actors hooked to your innovation.<br />
<br />
<b>Get the bigger picture…</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
...of marketing, selling and branding. If buyers will not spend less but buy less expecting more quality, the inner story of your innovation will become more important than the outer struggle for existence.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">And his will happen when products will become smarter and more connected. <span style="background-color: white; line-height: 21px;">Consequently, you need to invest more in the development than in promotion.</span> </span><br />
<br />
<b>How did I move?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I've continued working on principles that help optimizing market risk of innovations. And I've applied my recommendation to innovators - pushing their innovations into a higher context - myself. <br />
<br />
I've worked on my <i>Quant Politics</i> concept and decided to release it in book-form - self published in an evolutionary prototyping fashion.<br />
<br />
<b>I speak for the project</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I'm a marketer at heart. But my trick is not to present the innovator, the maker, the client or the re-marketing partner...I represent the project. And I want to get paid for success…not for work.<br />
<br />
If you're a startup or an established innovator…get the proof. <a href="http://www.exnergmbh.com/p/about-us.html" target="_blank">Contact me</a>.Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-31038662310078062622016-07-05T14:48:00.005+02:002016-07-07T10:40:00.827+02:00UnBrandingWe had <a href="http://www.exnergmbh.com/2014/12/unmarketing.html" target="_blank">UnMarketing</a> and <a href="http://www.exnergmbh.com/2014/12/we-had-unmarketing-now-we-have-unselling.html" target="_blank">UnSelling</a> and now we have UnBranding (Fast Company calls it <a href="http://www.fastcodesign.com/3060658/the-future-of-branding-is-debranding?utm_content=bufferb8765&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer" target="_blank">Debranding</a>). It's all about the big pictures of marketing, selling and branding.<br />
<br />
<b>Brand Promise</b><br />
<br />
I think, it's all about this: a brand promise connects purpose, positioning, team and client experience…It enables a brand delivery connecting with your clients (by head and heart) and differentiate your brand. In short, it's a promise about expectations, stories and relations…all related atop your innovations.<br />
<br />
Even shorter, brand is the meaning that clients attach to your innovation.<br />
<br />
<b>Not Overdo</b><br />
<br />
<b></b>This is what I understand from the article: if buyers will not spend less but buy less expecting more quality, it'll become more important to combine the what and who. Products will not only be chosen because of its differential advantages, but if there's enough trust in your promise.<br />
<br />
Yours worlds view, personality, values, visions...your communication, voice…your actions…how you build user experiences…will become more important related to your your design, imagery, messaging<br />
<br />
Make clients feel good about their decisions.<br />
<br />
<b>Branding is Communication</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
It has never been so easy to communicate, but the media also suggest that everything is interconnected.<b> </b>But innovations are special products that change more...So, the inner story of you innovation - how it works and integrates will most probably become more important then the outer struggles for existence.<br />
<br />
Consequently, you may choose investing more in the development than in promotion?! Let your innovation do most of the story. It will strip branding to its core…and <i>The Innovation Mesh</i> will help making your innovation work and sell…in the sense of UnBranding.Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-47159250716437726022016-06-24T18:03:00.000+02:002016-06-24T18:03:38.321+02:00Multiple Choice Buying?Regulations shift revenues from banks to <i>Central Counterparties</i>. Shall banks adopt a kind of "collaborative filtering algorithms"...successfully used by the online retail sector…to pitch new products to clients?<br />
<br />
<b>What's a collaborative filtering algorithm?</b><br />
<br />
It's a method of making automated predictions about the interests of a user by collecting preferences from many users. If one shares a taste with others its more likely that she shares another taste too.<br />
<br />
<b>If you listen too much to main stream, you create mainstream</b><br />
<br />
Collaborative filtering needs enough samples, it looks into the past…so, although collaborate filtering can claim to achieve good diversity and independence, it may work the other way around in unpredictable cases - if you listen too much to mainstream, you create mainstream.<br />
<br />
<b>Good for gadget buyers is not necessarily good for corporate treasurers</b><br />
<br />
The traditional role of, say, a corporate treasury embraces core functions…corporate finance, cash management, liquidity planning and control, procurement of financial investments…and increasingly important: management of interest, currency and commodity risk…and marginal functions that are extremely company specific.<br />
<br />
Senior management and board seek greater visibility to liquidity and risk exposures and better monitoring financial metrics on critical projects…this requires finding new ways to leverage treasury skills and technologies…maybe use things that are not in stock.<br />
<br />
<b>Quant finance</b><br />
<br />
Without using algorithms, you can't understand values and risk and engineer new financial instruments. But the success of treasury departments may need also quantitative methods to validate the major instruments they need…far beyond collaborative filtering.<br />
<br />
A treasurer's role may need to shift from being an asset guardian to a value creator…set the stage for successful investment and risk management, leverage technology and build quant finance skills.<br />
<br />
It's one example how indispensable quant innovation can become...Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-57601184048742261172016-06-23T14:20:00.001+02:002017-05-16T10:07:07.072+02:00Turn Techies Into FoundersThe usual scenario: investors look for startups with business plans, designs…and teams in place. There are other ways of supporting startups that all have in common: they need to understand whether an innovation will work and sell.<br />
<br />
<b>Don't find them - build them</b><br />
<br />
Today, I read <a href="http://www.wired.co.uk/article/entrepreneur-first-startups-london" target="_blank">here</a> (Wired UK, July issue) about building startups in-house. It's putting innovation into higher context. Tech will help leverage the developments and deployments, but in its core it's a bottom up approach of developing businesses around people.<br />
<br />
<b>A company builder for innovation builders </b><br />
<br />
A company builder begins pre-idea, pre-team…Their approach is evolutionary in the sense that they encourage and support people to do groundbreaking things. They finance the try at a low level already. The ability to support cross-overs, selection and mutation enable the company builder to finance along a profile of optimal market risk for the startups and of their own.<br />
<br />
I like this approach, because it creates real options for both the company and the innovation builder…and it provides constructive learning on a higher level…also for both.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.exnergmbh.com/2014/05/you-want-to-quit-your-job-to-start-your.html" target="_blank">This</a> is what I wrote two years ago about startups. Don't do it alone gets another dimension when working with a company builder…Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-41589611043481896022016-06-22T16:07:00.001+02:002016-06-22T16:07:33.266+02:00You're A GeniusIs there a magic behind creative thinking?<br />
<br />
<b>Innovation makes our species different</b><br />
<br />
Behavioral neurologists may say: yes, there are talents, but the neurological principles of creative behavior are the same among us - we all have creative minds. I agree. Creativity is a special class of problem-solving…characterized by difficulty, unconventionality, novelty…but it needs competency. C<b>an you buy competency?</b> Yes.<br />
<br />
<b>Wheels aren't hard to reinvent, are they? </b><br />
<br />
Original thinkers often look for adventure and start thinking not reading (eschewing algorithmic and technological fruits available). This is great for explorative learning, but it may reduce the value of the innovation?<br />
<br />
The innovative spiral drives faster if you push new, validated theorems, models...into the knowledge base and use them in a next turn.<br />
<br />
<b>What makes quant innovations work?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>What are the units of quant innovations and what are their generic building blocks? <a href="http://www.exnergmbh.com/p/tehe-innovation-mesh.html" target="_blank">Remember</a>, the basic units are functions, the most important units are tasks. Functions create tasks, tasks create workflows, workflows create subsystems and subsystems create the quant innovation.<br />
<br />
A quant innovation does only work, if it's developed the bottom up fashion and each unit has building blocks that are constructors, progressive problem managers and solvers.<br />
<br />
Functions tune the mechanics of tasks, workflows, subsystems...the system. They are the <i>media</i> of actors. They define the coverage and the depth of the system. Their programming style shall be symbolic, functional…but their implementations shall combine symbolic and numerical computation.<br />
<br />
Tasks have usually a time dimension and they move objects and actors. Tasks shall offer a clear shift throughout their flows. Tasks may be: data selection, curation and import...model validation…model across scenario evaluations…back and stress tests…result analytics and aggregation.<br />
<br />
Workflows may deal with the analysis, prediction or control of processes…in workflows we may use generic tasks like, "Create", "Select", "Apply"…<i>Data, Objects, Models, Parameters, Valuation Methods, Scenarios, Factors</i>…<br />
<br />
Subsystems and the system are created by workflows…subsystems are add-ons if they're built atop another subsystem (a platform).<br />
<br />
<b>Build your technology stack (and share it?)</b><br />
<br />
Develop a cascade of innovations that work and empower yourself unfolding creativity based on a growing stack of technologies. A Task-oriented Language, Engines that implement it, Communication Services, Data Services, A Computation Factory…Provide the same stack to other innovators. Build insight partnerships.<br />
<br />
Clouds and contextual front-ends help partners to develop and deploy jointly…innovations that may become the classic of the future. Work of geniuses.Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-84577379782145879742016-06-21T14:25:00.002+02:002016-06-22T13:19:31.119+02:00How Is Tech Changing...?One innovation: clouds helping cooperation between authors and producers, say, in Music. Writing. Educating. Building...Or in Software itself. New contextual front-ends will support the cloud controlling a kind of creation-experimentation-creation…spiral.<br />
<br />
We know this from maths, where creation uses abstraction that is driven by the evaluation of examples…<br />
<br />
<b>Tech has changed…</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
integrated and put into workflows: writing, capturing, refining, adapting, marketing, deploying, sharing…and exploring. Good tech offers rich functionality but lets creativity lead…and it shall at the same time lower the barrier to making and deploying...<br />
<br />
Creators can find producers and fans..and define projects that they want to work on together…Sharing isn't restricted to ideas, resources…it's related to projects, businesses…<br />
<br />
If you can't get purpose and profit at the same time - it doesn't matter much. It's connecting smart things for creation, deployment and services under the framework of multi-level sharing.<br />
<br />
And it will work especially well in fields that we find the most difficult: like quant innovations...Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-79337425734497684152016-06-20T13:57:00.002+02:002016-06-20T14:08:11.762+02:00How To Win I've worked on the diagnosis tool for quant innovations and thinking more about it, I became more interested in a higher context: politics. And it became even clearer to me: innovators need to push their innovations into a higher context…<br />
<br />
<b>The long breath of contextual thinking</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
But even developing or writing, interacting with my core partners frequently is the driver leveraging new inspirations…<br />
<br />
Today, I update your information about how <a href="http://www.unrisk.com/" target="_blank">UnRisk</a> continued transforming ideas and knowledge into margins. The story-of-being-lucky began with the decision to develop technologies without context in order to develop contextual products fit for purposes swiftly and adaptive. If we were a taylor we'd say: made-to-measure.<br />
<br />
And then we decided to unleash the programming power behind UnRisk. And partners helped us understanding new uses and users…and consequently contexts.<br />
<br />
This is my reference: <a href="https://www.unriskomega.com/en/" target="_blank">UnRiskOmega</a>. It has one controlling idea: enable experts and non experts to manage complex financial deals. In different environments but with the identical cores.<br />
<br />
Everything we ever had in mind…its cumulated in the reference. It's context technology in the core and in the front ends…and consequently, it's made-to-measure itself. It has the many faces of a navigator through the regulatory cliffs, a client profiler, a portfolio optimizer, a product risk classifier…<br />
<br />
It's the amazing result of a great cooperation: MathConsult-Multilateral-uni software plus…<br />
<br />
<b>Win</b><br />
<br />
You win developing technologies and products orthogonally, rely on open innovation and collaborate. Sounds easy? It's not. It has a few traps... Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-84716931381823194622016-06-11T14:56:00.001+02:002016-07-15T16:48:59.969+02:00QuantifyingI haven't posted for a while. I've worked on my <i>Quant Politics</i> concept and decided to release it in book-form. Everything is written, but it's still much work to do getting it into the form I've in mind. It will be in German (first).<br />
<br />
<b>Learning by writing</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I always learned when writing. But there's this autodidact's dilemma:<br />
<br />
I've never learned any political theories. I've no theoretical background in social and economic sciences…I analyzed various socio-economic and political systems, but not too much…there're great books and the blogosphere is really rich of great ideas…see my <i>As Read At </i>list.<br />
<br />
But where to begin is a personal choice and the emergence of progressive problems force you to dive deeper into a particular discipline….along the writing.<br />
<br />
<b>About a political system that may fix what it eventually broke - Innovation</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
That is an usual objective of innovation. And my simple idea is: it must be adaptive - more computational. Quant Politics. So, one of the controlling idea is to apply my knowledge on how to make innovation not only working but attractive enough to be integrated…<br />
<br />
It must be adaptive because of the complexity of the economy and labor. They must develop in a coevolution. It's radical innovation, but to make it acceptable it needs to use existing tools and instruments. Our money system. Taxes. Transfer Payments. Hard- and Soft-Infrastructure. Financial Instruments…but differently set up and applied. <br />
<br />
<b>It's required to be much more quantitative</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Its foundation is the philosophy of <i>Speculative Realism</i>, where new contexts are written into blank socioeconomic spaces. To understand whether a theory is possible we need <a href="http://www.exnergmbh.com/2014/12/about-possible-and-impossible-tasks.html" target="_blank">Constructors</a><i>. </i>And politics need to surf at the waves of reality and adapt its decisions by recalibrating its models…<br />
<br />
<b>It shall help avoiding the no-problem problem</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
That is what politics impresses: the constant peeking for danger allows no no-problem phases and the soporific we-are-doing-so-well often leads to a crisis.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Hiding the chances of risk breeds fear - hiding the dangers of risk creates disasters and crises</blockquote>
We need policies against exaggerated fear and recklessness. Consequently, a new political system needs to work with quantitative support. It must be interactive. Evolutionary. It has to work with simple models and tools. It must support explorative and experimental political learning enabling much more direct democratic elements.<br />
<br />
<b>To integrate it quickly we need to accelerate the change process</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I recommend to run through the following phases of the promotion process: <b>Reaction</b> according to the principle of <i>chemical reactions</i> between groups with different philosophical beliefs, cultures, social systems, economies, stages of development, educational standards…<b>Circulation</b> by a kind <i>convection</i> at the boundaries of different political segments with different expectations, knowledge and skills...<b>Diffusion</b> by concentric dissemination of information and frameworks.<br />
<br />
<b>Integrate it by projects</b><br />
<br />
It needs projects to understand the required behavior changes, how much it contradicts world views, culture, social systems, economy. Projects shall tell us how it is accepted, how much explanatory support it needs and how quickly it gets stuck without direct intervention and how it spreads with the help of early adopters and multipliers.<br />
<br />
<b>A politics of open innovation and sharing</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Taking the complexity economy and labor of the future and the technological evolution and combine them, I come to a few conclusions:<br />
<ul>
<li>Our money system should be programmable and implementable in a kind of <a href="http://www.exnergmbh.com/search?q=Internet+of+Money" target="_blank">Internet of Money</a>. Implementing a <i>book</i> that is not owned by anybody, but everybody. It would most probably enable the implementation of a much more dynamic book keeping system</li>
<li>New methodologies and technology could empower a politics with much more direct democratic elements</li>
<li>A better understanding of property rights, use rights and copyrights could open the possibilities of privately offered <i>semi-properties</i> enhancing the usual hard- ind soft-infrastructures provided by the public sector…emphasizing on the stimulation of innovation</li>
<li>The <i>Main Street</i> could benefit more from the innovations of the <i>Wall Street</i> without suffering from the downsides</li>
<li>To help turning automation into augmentation the progressive tax system shall be extended from wages to total income and a basic income should be implemented stepwise according to the future of work…tax systems and transfer payments shall be adaptive</li>
<li>The general direction of the system design: as decentralized as possible - as centralized as required</li>
</ul>
The big picture: make a political <a href="http://www.exnergmbh.com/2014/07/real-options-enable-antifragility.html" target="_blank">system that becomes stronger when stressed</a><br />
<br />
I'm not megalomanic…thinking that my book will convince authorities to make the changes...but I hope that one or the other idea will attract experts to transform them into concrete projects.<br />
<br />
I've looked into politics through the lens of an innovator and innovation marketer. Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5363738083282664371.post-9144100713268247402016-03-26T15:26:00.000+01:002016-06-30T10:52:25.886+02:00A Master Machine Learning Algorithm? It's all about extracting knowledge from data. And there's hope that this knowledge is understandable and computational. I worked with machine learning for over 25 years and I've learned the lesson: working in the data salt mines make us (too) often breaking a sweat.<br />
<br />
<b>A short story of being unlucky</b><br />
<br />
The idea has a long tradition: computerized systems are people and there's a strong relation between algorithms and life.<br />
<br />
First…if systems replicate all or knowledge, expertise…they are intelligent. This top down expert system thinking "died".<br />
<br />
Then...Artificial Life, in contrast, named a discipline that examines systems related to life, its processes and solutions. Genetic programming would emerge intelligent artificial creatures? They did not..<br />
<br />
Now…because we've neurons intelligent machines need to have them too…our brain has an enormous capacity…to make AIs we only need to combine massive inherent parallelism, massive data management and deep neural nets…?<br />
<br />
All this phases have brought us a fantastic technology stack for machine learning…but we still wait for the breakthrough.<br />
<br />
<b>The race for the single algorithm</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
This race is motivated by the idea: if we understand how our brain learns, we can develop learning machines…and the belief of the schools of imitating biology seems to be that the way brains learn can be captured in a single algorithm.<br />
<br />
The connectionists belief that all our knowledge is encoded in the neural nets and "backpropagation" is the "master algorithm".<br />
<br />
The evolutionaries think the ideas of genetic programming further<br />
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But there're schools that find imitating evolution or the brain will not lead to an master algorithm. Its better to solve the problem using principles from logic, statistics and computer science.<br />
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The Bayesians think creating the master algorithm boils down to implementing the mathematical rules of Bayes's theory.<br />
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The symbolists closest to "classic"knowledge-based AI thinking believe in general-purpose learning in extraction and combining rules that can be evaluated by inference engines.<br />
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The analogisers work on forms of analogical reasoning based on massive data.<br />
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<b>One size doesn't fit all?</b><br />
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By experience from practical machine learning projects, I'm infected by the multi-strategy and multi-method approach and the combination of modeling and machine learning.<br />
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This doesn't mean that I do not believe that a master machine learning algorithm isn't possible…but why should we make machines that think like us, if they possibly could extract things that we don't recognize…helping us to gain fundamentally new insights?<br />
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Applying machine learning as for the analysis, prediction and control of industrial processes, we've used fuzzy logic based methods to reduce the problem to a size that makes it fit for automation and identified parameters of the models for constant recalibration…with a set of methods from statistics and neural nets…<br />
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We shall not think like machine so that machines can think like us…but shall machines think like us in order to replace us or think differently to augment our capabilities?<br />
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This post has been inspired by an article of the April-16 issue of the Wired UK Edition (Pedro Domingos).Herbert Exnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05379855380552452430noreply@blogger.com